Purpose Current talent identification programs struggle to successfully identify young track-and-field talents. This study prospectively investigated whether the distribution of slow and fast muscle fibers predicts future performance over up to 12 yr. Methods Since 2010, we included 64 talented youth athletes from selective track-and-field elite sport schools (age, 15.7 ± 1.3 yr; range, 12-18 yr). Their muscle typology was noninvasively estimated in the gastrocnemius muscle using 3T proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the fast-twitch metabolite carnosine. Youth athletes` muscle typology was compared with a discipline-specific elite athlete benchmark cohort (n = 87, >=1050 IAAF points). Youth athletes were classified as matches if their muscle typology was within the range (mean ± 1 SD) of the elite athletes for their discipline, otherwise classified as mismatches. Results Follow-up was on average 5.0 ± 3.6 yr after the scan. The matching athletes achieved a significantly higher IAAF score (987 ± 110 vs 915 ± 93 points, P = 0.011) compared with mismatching athletes, indicating better future performance if muscle typology at youth level matched with muscle typology of the elite benchmark competing in the same discipline. Of all matching athletes, 19% achieved an all-time best score above 1100 IAAF points, that is, reaching international standards, compared with none with a mismatching muscle typology (P = 0.029). Conclusions This prospective study shows for the first time that youth track-and-field athletes who train for a discipline that is deemed optimal based on their muscle typology will attain a better performance at senior level, opening perspectives for talent identification.
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