Purpose: This study longitudinally examined the influence of sporting history, the relative age effect (RAE), and physical development on the elite progression of Japanese athletes from a local talent identification and development (L-TID) programme to senior elite status. Methods: Data were collected from 383 L-TID graduates (31 senior elite athletes and 352 talented athletes). The cohort demonstrated significantly superior physical fitness and consistent physical advantages. Logistic regression analysis was conducted across 5 academic years (from 5th grade in elementary school to 9th grade in junior high school) to identify consistent predictors of elite status. Results: Senior elite athletes were highly concentrated in a limited number of late-specialisation sports, with 90% having experienced a sports transition. Sex (female) and sports transitioning emerged as the most consistent predictors of elite attainment across all grades. While talented athletes initially demonstrated significant RAE and superior physical fitness upon entry, these advantages diminished by the senior elite level. General anthropometric and fitness measures (except body mass in grades 8-9) were not reliable predictors of long-term elite progression. Conclusion: Elite attainment within the L-TID programme, targeting a cohort with superior athletic ability, is predominantly influenced by structural and developmental factors (female participation and late specialisation) rather than by initial RAE or physical attributes. These findings support talent development strategies that foster diverse sporting experiences and deliberate talent transfer, highlighting a shift away from early RAE and physical-based selection towards more holistic and adaptive developmental approaches reflecting the Japanese sporting and social context.
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