Drawing on the portfolio management perspective as a conceptual framework, and the literature on elite sport prioritisation, this study examines whether more concentrated or more diversified Olympic delegation portfolios are associated with Olympic success. Previous studies investigating countries` Olympic funding strategies were often hindered by sample limitations and methodological biases. To overcome these constraints, this study introduces Olympic delegation composition as a novel proxy for resource allocation, enabling robust econometric analyses across the full population of competing nations. Employing the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to classify nations` Olympic portfolios as diversified or prioritised, we analysed data from all nations competing at the Summer Olympic Games between 1996 and 2024. Our results indicate a significant quadratic relationship between portfolio strategy and Olympic performance, suggesting two distinct optimal approaches: prioritisation (focused investment in fewer sports) and diversification (investing across multiple sports). Marginal predictions show that diversified approaches yield higher predicted medal and sport shares, while concentrated strategies offer lower but a bit more consistent success. Intermediate, mixed strategies were found to be suboptimal. Additionally, we identified macro-level socioeconomic factors - GDP per capita, population size, and historical context (e.g. former communist bloc nations) - as significantly influencing the choice and effectiveness of portfolio strategies. The findings clarify the strategic trade-offs nations face when optimising Olympic success through targeted resource allocation and offer evidence-based guidance for sport policy decision-makers seeking to allocate finite national resources across Olympic sports.
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